My comment to Clay’s latest thoughts on social software and the Dean Campaign (Link):
I think focussing in on the disconnect between 1-3 and 4 is important to do. Two hypotheses:
I think alot of people were drawn to the Dean the Campaign as much as Dean the Candidate, but when it came time to really vote, the attachment to the Campaign wasnat sticky enough to keep people on board when others had real momentum for the first time. (this sounds vague, but I believe thereas a real issue here)
The effects of 1-3 may be very real, but the fraction of the population that they reach or represent is still very low. Even the fundraising, while dramatic, still represents a tiny fraction of the populus and is only a starting point to a solid base on which to win the nomination (itas also not unrealistic to give $100 to a campaign you like, but that $100 may not be enough to keep you from switching if so inclined). I believe the intertwined community amplified by an interested media makes it feel like 1-3 are touching more Americans directly than it really is (yet).